Strategy Debates of political parties in context of the European Elections

Following the snap parliamentary election in October 2017, the Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ, Social Democratic Party of Austria) went from being in government to being the main opposition (as the second-largest parliamentary party). In May 2019, the SPÖ returned five MEPs to the S&D group.

Raw data for Austria compiled from Poll of Polls.

There are two Belgian parties belonging to the European social democratic family: the Parti Socialiste (PS, Socialist Party), which stands in the Francophone regions (Wallonia and Brussels) and the German-speaking Eastern Cantons, and the Socialistische Partij Anders (sp.a, Socialist Party Differently), which stands in the Flemish-speaking region. Both parties were formerly part of the nationwide Belgian Socialist Party (founded 1885) until it split in 1978.

Currently, both of Belgium’s social democratic parties are in opposition. In December 2018, the Neu-Flämische Allianz (N-VA, New-Flemish Alliance) left the governing coalition over the government’s decision to sign UN’s Global Compact on Migration. Henceforth, Prime Minister Charles Michel is leading a minority government consisting of four parties.

The last federal parliamentary elections were taking place on 26 May 2019 (like in 2014, in parallel with the European Parliament election). In the 2019 European election, the two social democratic parties won a combined total of 12.8 per cent of the vote and are represented by three MEPs in the S&D group.

Raw data for Belgium compiled from Poll of Polls.

In 2001, the social democratic Bulgarska sotsialisticheska partiya (BSP, Bulgarian Socialist Party) formed an alliance with several other left-wing parties known as Koalizija za Balgarija (KB, Coalition for Bulgaria; in 2017 renamed BSP for Bulgaria). In Bulgaria’s current parliamentary term, which began with the snap election on 26 March 2017, the social democrats are in opposition. The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2021. In the European Parliament, the coalition has a total of five MEPs in the S&D group.

Raw data for Bulgaria compiled from Poll of Polls.

The Croatian delegation in the S&D group is made up of three MEPs from the Socijaldemokratska partija Hrvatske (SDP, Social Democratic Party of Croatia). The SDP is the second-largest party in the Croatian parliament, securing 33.8% of the vote at the last election, and is the country’s main opposition. The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2020.

Raw datafor Croatia compiled fromPolls of Polls.

Although Denmark’s social democratic party Socialdemokratiet (party letter A, Social Democrats) won the most votes in the last national election in 2015, they are currently in opposition. The country is ruled by a minority government by the centre-right Venstre party. In the 2019 European elections, the party won 21.5% of the vote, giving it three MEPs in the S&D group. 2019 will be an interesting year for Denmark, since in addition to the European elections in May, national parliamentary elections will be held in June.

Raw data for Denmark compiled from Poll of Polls.

The Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond (SDE, engl. Social Democratic Party) from Estonia belongs to the European family of Social Democrats in the S&D fraction. The last national elections took place at the beginning of March 2019. The Social Democrats have lost a significant share of their vote and, after their time as junior partners in the governing coalition from 2015-2019, are likely to remain in opposition in the coming years until the parliamentary elections in 2023. At the European level, the SDE has two members in the S&D fraction.

Raw datafor Estonia compiled fromPolls of Polls.

The Suomen sosialidemokraattinen puolue (SDP, Social Democratic Party of Finland) have managed to become the strongest party in the last national parliamentary election in 2019, after a historic defeat in 2015. At that time, with the worst result since its founding, the SDP belonged to the opposition in the Finnish parliament. In the election of the European Parliament in 2019, the party was able to win 14.6% of Finnish votes and since then has two MEPs in the S&D-Group.

Raw datafor Finland compiled fromPolls of Polls.

The elections of the president and the national parliament in the spring of 2017 have turned the political landscape in France completely upside down. The formerly strong parties, the conservative Republicans and the socialists with their Parti socialiste (PS, Socialist Party) have suffered historical defeats. In the national parliamentary elections, the socialists were able to muster just 7.4 percent of the votes. The negative trend continued in the European Parliament elections of 2019, where the Socialists more than halved their result compared to 2014, with five members of the Socialists moving into the European Parliament with 6.4 percent of the French vote.

Raw datafor France compiled fromPolls of Polls.

The German delegation in the S&D group is made up of 16 MEPs from the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD, Social Democratic Party of Germany). This makes it the third-biggest national delegation in the S&D group. Compared to the European elections in 2014, the Social Democrats have suffered a significant defeat in 2019 and lost 11 seats in the European Parliament. Following the elections in September 2017, the SPD has been the junior partner in a grand coalition at national level. The next German Bundestag elections are scheduled for autumn 2021.

Raw data for Germany compiled fromPolls of Polls.

In autumn 2017, Greece’s traditional main social democratic party PASOK merged with the liberal party To Potami, the centre-left party DIMAR and other small parties from the centre-left spectrum to form Κίνημα Αλλαγής/Kinima Allagis (KA, Movement for Change). PASOK previously had an electoral pact with DIMAR for the parliamentary elections in September 2015. In the election of the European Parliament in 2019, this alliance won 7.2 per cent of the vote. As a result, the alliance has two members in the S&D Group.

Raw datafor Greece compiled fromPolls of Polls.

The Páirtí an Lucht Oibre (Labour Party) is the social democratic party of the Republic of Ireland. At the parliamentary elections in February 2016, Labour received just 6.6 per cent of the vote. Prior to the election it had been part of the governing coalition, but now sits in opposition. In the European elections of 2019, the Irish Labor Party received 3.5 per cent of the votes, which was not enough to receive one of the eleven Irish seats. Labor will not be represented in the European Parliament from 2019-2024.

Raw datafor Ireland compiled fromPolls of Polls.

With 18 MEPs, Italy has the second-largest national delegation in the S&D group. The vast majority come from the Partito Democratico (PD, Democratic Party). At national level, the PD has suffered heavy losses in recent years. In March 2018, it won a vote share of just 18.7% in the parliamentary elections and is now in opposition.

Raw datafor Italy compiled fromPolls of Polls.

The Latvian members of the S&D group are from the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” (SDPS, Social Democratic Party “Harmony”). The SDPS is one of the EU’s newest social democratic parties. It was founded in 2010 out of a merger between its predecessor, the Tautas Saskanas partija, the centrist Jaunais centrs and the Sociāldemokrātiskā partija (SDP). In January 2011, the Daugavpils pilsētas partija also joined. Although the SDPS is the largest group in the national parliament, with 23 out of 100 seats following the elections in October 2018, it will probably not enter government. In 2019, the party won 17.45% of the vote in the European elections.

Raw datafor Latvia compiled fromPolls of Polls.

In the 2016 parliamentary elections, the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (LSDP, Social Democratic Party of Lithuania) came third. It initially joined the government as junior coalition partner. When the new party leadership decided to pull out of the government in September 2017, a majority of LSDP parliamentary representatives chose to continue supporting the government, leading to a split in the parliamentary group. In March 2018, breakaway LSDP members joined with former members of the Darbo partija (Labour Party) to found the Lietuvos socialdemokratų darbo partija (LSDDP, Social Democratic Labour Party of Lithuania). The LSDDP is not represented in the European Parliament.

Raw datafor Lithuania compiled fromPolls of Polls.

Luxembourg’s social democratic party is the Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei (LSAP, Luxembourg Socialist Workers’ Party). Between 2013 and 2018, it was a junior partner in coalition with the centre-right Democratic Party and the Greens. In the national parliamentary elections in October 2018, the LSAP’s vote share dropped by 2.7 per cent. Negotiations over a continuation of the previous governing coalition are still ongoing. At European level, the LSAP is represented by one MEP in the S&D group.

Most polls for the Luxembourg parliamentary elections are not expressed in terms of vote share percentages (as is the norm elsewhere), but rather in terms of seat distributions. Since the results for social democratic parties in all other EU member states are shown on the maps in percentages, polls with percentage distributions have also been used for Luxembourg. The last known such poll was conducted in December 2017 by the French polling company IFOP, available here. The result of the October 2018 election, in which the social democrats won 17.6 per cent of the vote, has been used as the most up-to-date reference figure in lieu of a poll until new polls with percentage figures are available.

By far the most successful social democratic party in Europe is Malta’s Partit Laburista (PL, Labour Party). At the parliamentary elections in 2017, the PL secured 55% of the vote, allowing it to govern without a coalition partner. The party was also very successful in the 2019 European elections, with a vote share of 54.29% and returned four MEPs (two-thirds of Malta’s total), who sit with the S&D group.

Raw datafor Malta compiled fromPolls of Polls.

At the last Dutch elections in March 2017, the social democratic Partij van de Arbeid (PvdA, Labour Party) came seventh with a vote share of just 5.7 per cent, the worst result in the party’s history and one that has emphatically consigned it to opposition. On the European level, a strong success could be won in 2019 with 18.9 per cent of the vote. Thus, the PvdA currently has six representatives in the S&D group.

Raw datafor the Netherlands compiled fromPolls of Polls.

At the last national parliamentary elections in 2015, the social democratic Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (SLD, Democratic Left Alliance) won 7.6 per cent of the vote, just short of the 8% threshold required for multiparty coalitions, which means that the social democrats are not currently represented in the national parliament. In the European Parliament, the SLD has five MEPs, who belong to the S&D group. In the 2019 elections, the SLD did not start as an independent party, but in a party alliance with other pro-European parties.

Raw datafor Poland compiled fromPolls of Polls.

One of Europe’s more successful social democratic parties at present is the Partido Socialista (PS, Socialist Party) in Portugal. Since 2015, it has been running a minority government backed by the two left-wing parties in parliament, and its poll ratings have been rising steadily. At European level, the PS is represented in the S&D group by nine MEPs.

Raw datafor Portugal compiled fromPolls of Polls.

With 45 per cent of the vote, the Partidul Social Democrat (PSD, Social Democratic Party) was the clear winner in the 2016 parliamentary elections. It is now the senior partner in the current governing coalition. In the European Parliament, the PSD, and with it the S&D group, holds the second largest share of Romania’s seats (9 out of a total of 32).

Raw datafor Romania compiled fromPolls of Polls.

Sweden’s most recent parliamentary elections were held on 9 September 2018. The Socialdemokraterna (S, Social Democratic Party) won 28.4 per cent of the vote. While the previous term saw a minority coalition consisting of Socialdemocrats and Greens that was backed by a confidence and supply agreement with the Left Party, this cooperation could not be resumed after the 2018 elections. Given the strong performance of the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats, both of the traditional parliamentary blocs fell short of majority. After more than half a year of negotiations and multiple failed attempts to form a government, a minority government consisting of Socialdemocrats and Greens was formed at the end of January 2019. The coalition’s inauguration was supported by Liberals as well as the Swedish Centre Party thus constituting a breach with the long-standing tradition of bloc politics. In the European elections of 2019, the Social Democrats received the largest share of the Swedish vote and represented five of the twenty MEPs.

Raw data for Sweden compiled fromPolls of Polls.