SUMMARY

• This paper presents four alternative global futures for the monopoly on the legitimate use of force with the aim of stimulating discussion and assisting policy planning. They are not predictions, but aim to allow policy makers to embrace uncertainty and plan for the future.
• These futures were built on two key uncertainties: (1) Will security provision in 2040 be more consolidated or more fragmented? (2) Will security provision in 2040 be more inclusive or more exclusive?
• The continuation of the current trend toward fragmentation, privatization, outsourcing and commodification of security provision needs to be avoided, or at very least requires oversight, regulation and coordination.
• International cooperation and international solutions to transnational challenges are required at a time when tensions are once again on the rise.
• An effective and legitimate monopoly on the use of force needs to be established cautiously by assisting legitimate security provision and, once firmly established, it requires maintenance.