Three scenarios outline possible trajectories for NATO’s future development – depending on threats posed by Russia and the changing role of the United States within the Alliance. Synthesising findings from the individual country analyses, this paper identifies the key strategic challenges facing the Alliance: maintaining deterrence, managing transatlantic uncertainty and enhancing Europe’s ability to act.

Amid strategic transformation, France is prioritising Europe’s ability to act independently over continued reliance on the US. The study examines France’s emerging role on NATO’s eastern flank, its efforts to bolster nuclear deterrence and its call for a truly autonomous European defence – balancing national interests, European responsibility and transatlantic constraints.

Italy’s role in NATO is marked by domestic political scepticism contrasted with consistent external commitment to the Alliance. The study shows how this ambivalence is reflected in its institutional participation, its role as a host nation for NATO bases and its involvement in nuclear sharing – while also underscoring Rome’s particular focus on the Alliance’s southern flank.

The study examines the internal dynamics of NATO during a period of heightened geopolitical tension and shifting US strategic priorities. It reveals changing views on Russia, China, nuclear deterrence, and NATO’s identity as a community of values – and highlights where debates remain ongoing.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has redefined Poland’s security role within the Alliance. The study explores how the current threat environment is impacting Warsaw’s strategic alignment with NATO and the United States – and analyses the growing importance of German-Polish relations in this security context.

After more than 200 years of neutrality, Sweden became a full NATO member in March 2024. The study explores the country’s security policy realignment in response to Russian aggression, global power shifts, and transatlantic uncertainties – and discusses central debates on nuclear weapons, China and hybrid threats.

Caught between strategic necessity and geopolitical reality, the war has heightened Ukraine’s expectations of NATO – while also prompting more realistic assessments of its membership prospects. Ukraine sees itself as a central pillar of European defence, remains dependent on NATO and faces new strategic constraints at the same time.

Under Donald Trump’s influence, US policy toward NATO has undergone a fundamental shift. The analysis examines domestic dynamics and strategic debates within think tanks, political circles, and broader society – identifying key schools of thought shaping NATO policy and the implications for Europe.