Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s view of NATO has oscillated between sharp criticism and cautious openness. The study shows how NATO is perceived as an instrument of American hegemony – but also as a potential partner and an opportunity to stabilise relations.

Three scenarios outline possible trajectories for NATO’s future development – depending on threats posed by Russia and the changing role of the United States within the Alliance. Synthesising findings from the individual country analyses, this paper identifies the key strategic challenges facing the Alliance: maintaining deterrence, managing transatlantic uncertainty and enhancing Europe’s ability to act.

Finland’s NATO accession in 2023 marked a significant shift in its security policy. Core elements of its approach include credible deterrence, firm solidarity with Ukraine, and addressing challenges posed by Russia, China, and hybrid threats. Helsinki positions itself as a dependable Alliance partner – navigating between European priorities and transatlantic uncertainty.

Amid strategic transformation, France is prioritising Europe’s ability to act independently over continued reliance on the US. The study examines France’s emerging role on NATO’s eastern flank, its efforts to bolster nuclear deterrence and its call for a truly autonomous European defence – balancing national interests, European responsibility and transatlantic constraints.

Strategic rethinking is shaping the security policy debate in Germany in the wake of two watershed moments: the war in Ukraine and the return of Donald Trump. Key issues here include Germany’s position on Russia, China, nuclear deterrence and hybrid threats – along with the strategic recalibrations these challenges require.

Italy’s role in NATO is marked by domestic political scepticism contrasted with consistent external commitment to the Alliance. The study shows how this ambivalence is reflected in its institutional participation, its role as a host nation for NATO bases and its involvement in nuclear sharing – while also underscoring Rome’s particular focus on the Alliance’s southern flank.

Lithuania views Russia as an existential threat and sees itself as a leading voice on security policy within NATO. The study analyses national expert debates on key challenges such as the war in Ukraine, China, Russia, and the role of nuclear deterrence.

The study examines the internal dynamics of NATO during a period of heightened geopolitical tension and shifting US strategic priorities. It reveals changing views on Russia, China, nuclear deterrence, and NATO’s identity as a community of values – and highlights where debates remain ongoing.

The study analyses the Netherlands’ security and defence policy positioning within the NATO framework. It portrays a pragmatically oriented founding member, increasingly willing to share burdens and open to the idea of European strategic autonomy – particularly in light of a possible reduction in US engagement in the Alliance.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has redefined Poland’s security role within the Alliance. The study explores how the current threat environment is impacting Warsaw’s strategic alignment with NATO and the United States – and analyses the growing importance of German-Polish relations in this security context.

From Moscow’s perspective, NATO is perceived as both an aggressive adversary and ideological opponent – a view that has become increasingly radicalised since the invasion of Ukraine. Drawing on expert commentary and think tank analysis in Russia, the study shows how Moscow views NATO as a litmus test for a new global order.

After more than 200 years of neutrality, Sweden became a full NATO member in March 2024. The study explores the country’s security policy realignment in response to Russian aggression, global power shifts, and transatlantic uncertainties – and discusses central debates on nuclear weapons, China and hybrid threats.

Turkey’s ambivalent role in NATO reflects a geopolitical balancing act – between security cooperation, national interests and regional ambitions. The study places less emphasis on Russia or China, instead highlighting challenges in the Middle East, terrorism and migration – as well as on Ankara’s increasingly autonomous view of the Alliance.

Caught between strategic necessity and geopolitical reality, the war has heightened Ukraine’s expectations of NATO – while also prompting more realistic assessments of its membership prospects. Ukraine sees itself as a central pillar of European defence, remains dependent on NATO and faces new strategic constraints at the same time.

British security policy is undergoing strategic reorientation in response to challenges posed by Russia, China and an increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy. This “Eurocentric turn” is evident in London’s ambition to play a central role in both European security policy and within NATO.

Under Donald Trump’s influence, US policy toward NATO has undergone a fundamental shift. The analysis examines domestic dynamics and strategic debates within think tanks, political circles, and broader society – identifying key schools of thought shaping NATO policy and the implications for Europe.