Between deterrence and deals

Since the early 2000s, the Eastern Mediterranean has served as a vital gateway for refugees, migrants, and asylum seekers entering Europe from the Middle East, Asia, and Africa—mainly via Türkiye, but increasingly also from Lebanon, Egypt, and Libya. Countries like Greece and Cyprus, due to their geographic position, have faced growing pressure from migration. The political landscape in the EU’s immediate neighborhood and in countries of origin of migratory movements is subject to constant and significant change. From ongoing conflicts in Syria and Afghanistan and the war in Gaza, to economic hardship in Egypt, military coups in Africa, and worsening climate impacts, the Eastern Mediterranean remains a focal point of Europe’s migration challenges and strategies. While refugee numbers are declining along some migration routes, an increasing number of people are risking the perilous journey through the Eastern Mediterranean.

To assess the situation and provide a comprehensive overview of migration in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, in collaboration with its partners—the PRIO Cyprus Centre, the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, and the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)—has conducted a comparative analysis, drawing on studies from Egypt, Lebanon, Greece and Cyprus.

The project seeks to bring together perspectives of transit and receiving destinations for mixed migratory movement and to offer a snapshot of the recent evolution and current situation in the Eastern Mediterranean migratory corridor. Thereby, the reports suggest that despite the very different national contexts and challenges, the two sides of the Mediterranean share significant similarities, specifically how they are responding to the challenges emerging from the socio-economic, climate and security challenges in the region and beyond. In this, the particular role of the EU is present in all four countries. In its external dimension, it not only seeks to support countries in the region but is also “asking” them to function as gatekeepers, whether frontline member states like Cyprus and Greece, or countries in the immediate neighborhood like Egypt and Lebanon. Against this backdrop, the reports emphasize how these partnerships shape the migration policies of the respective countries.
 

The most important findings

Migration Trends in the Eastern Mediterranean

The Eastern Mediterranean remains a major route for refugees and economic migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Egyptian migration has surged, with 20,000 Egyptians arriving in Italy from Libya in 2022 - almost the number from the previous year. Egypt also hosts 1.2 million Sudanese refugees, while Lebanon has experienced mass displacement, with 440,000 people, mostly Syrians and Lebanese, fleeing to Syria between September and October 2024. Greece recorded 52,052 arrivals in 2024, while Cyprus has seen a reduction in numbers. This is largely attributable to its enhanced border controls, cooperation with Frontex, and suspension of asylum processing for Syrians, who constituted the main nationality in the boat arrivals.
 

EU's External Migration Policies and Agreements

The EU has strengthened migration agreements with Egypt and Lebanon, offering financial support in exchange for border management. In 2024, the EU offered Egypt a €7.4 billion package, including €200 million for migration management, while Lebanon received €1.03 billion to support border security and essential services. Under the current EU approach, migration is embedded in a broader cooperation, i.e., in areas such as economy and trade, investments in green energy, security, and capacity building projects. In exchange, countries are expected to ensure that irregular departures are reduced and to accept returnees.
 

Deterrence and Border Control Measures

Greece and Cyprus have tightened border controls through pushbacks, deportations and stricter asylum policies. In 2023, Cyprus had the highest percentage of returns among EU countries, while ranking fourth in absolute numbers. Greece has intensified its deterrence measures, including expanded border fences, returns, and restrictive asylum laws. In reaction to the significant number of arrivals in 2019, Greece enacted the “International Protection Act”, introducing stringent asylum procedures and punitive measures. The law has faced criticism from human rights organizations for reducing safeguards for asylum seekers and imposing additional pressure on administrative processes. Lebanon and Egypt intensified their policies as well. Only 20% of Syrians in Lebanon held valid residency in 2023, making them vulnerable to deportation.
 

Ongoing Socioeconomic and Political Factors Driving Migration

Conflicts in Syria, Sudan and Gaza, as well as deteriorating economies in Egypt and Lebanon, continue to drive migration. Many Egyptians face economic hardship, with over 32 million people affected by poverty in 2018. In Lebanon, 36% of participants in the eighth wave of the Arab Barometer (2024) expressed a desire to emigrate, while 17% reported a willingness to migrate irregularly. The lack of legal avenues forces many to take dangerous journeys, while climate change and resource scarcity add to the pressure to migrate.