The Covid-19 Crisis

Implications and Lessons for European Social Democracy

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Summary

The study The Covid-19 Crisis: Implications and Lessons for European Social Democracy summarises the results of a two-year joint project carried out by the Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FEVES) in six EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden) during the Corona pandemic. In a comparative overall study and six country studies, the central trends and insights of the Corona pandemic and the political lessons for Social Democrats in Europe are worked out.

The project is based on empirical data from a total of 12,000 respondents. In two surveys (December 2020 and November 2021), 1,000 people were interviewed in each of the six participating countries. The questionnaire included 13 socio-demographic and 63 thematic questions. Partners in the implementation of the project were the Cattaneo Institute from Bologna, the Amsterdam research institute Kieskompas and the survey institute Dynata.

The results of the studies were presented in a panel discussion at FEPS headquarters in Brussels on 16.05.2023. A live recording of the event is available on YouTube.

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Key Findings of the Study

Support for incumbent governments and trust in institutions

Incumbent governments and existing institutions, regardless of their political orientation, gained confidence and support during the Covid-19 pandemic. This so-called "rally-round-the-flag" phenomenon refers to the growing popular support for a country's government in times of crisis. In general, left-wing and social democratic governments received more support than right-wing governments due to their proactive approach to the pandemic, especially the increase in social benefits.
During the pandemic, citizens had to trade off between protecting public health and protecting the economy and jobs. Supporters of the left prioritised public health over the economy and jobs, while voters of the right were more concerned about preserving the economy.
On issues of vaccination and the restriction of individual freedoms, there was a deep political polarisation between centre-left and centre-right voters and supporters of extremist and populist parties. The electorate of the established parties supported vaccination efforts, while the voters of the extreme parties tended to believe in conspiracies and took an anti-establishment stance.
The pandemic indicates that crises tend not to offer social democrats a favourable environment in which to make their mark. This is because all governments strive for a relatively high degree of social protectionism as a central political goal.

The Post-pandemic Socio-economic Agenda: Preventing the Rise of the Radical Right

The pandemic had a significant impact on economic prospects and working conditions. The economically weaker sections of the population, especially younger people and women, were hit particularly hard. The asymmetrical effects of the pandemic, compounded by the socio-economic impact of the war in Ukraine, were deliberately instrumentalised politically by the radical right.
Social democrats are supported by groups of voters who are economically secure and have a higher standard of living, while support for social democrats is declining among the economically weaker sections of the population, and especially among the working class. These people are increasingly turning to extreme movements on the right and left.
The centre left should continue to appeal to the middle class, but at the same time counteract the exodus of voters from the most economically disadvantaged sections of the working class.

Great Expectations: Approval of the EU and the Role of the State

With regard to the EU and economic regulations, the survey results show that the existing political division has not decreased but increased - despite the enormous financial resources that the EU has made available to the member states. Even though the majority of the countries surveyed continue to view EU membership positively, the proportion of those who express ambivalence towards the EU is high.
The centre-left should keep a careful eye on this ambivalence, because it could easily turn into undisguised Euroscepticism as soon as economic conditions deteriorate. Social democratic voters are among those most in favour of EU membership, but there are marked ambivalences among this group of voters as well.
More than 60 per cent of respondents in all countries believe that the state should regulate the economy more - a traditionally left-wing policy. Left-wing voters share this view most often, while right-wing voters reject it most strongly.
Social democrats could benefit from this development by emphasising positive aspects of economic regulation in terms of consumer protection, fair competition and environmental protection. Cynicism and anti-systemism are found among people with lower incomes and less education, among (right-wing) populists and among those who do not subscribe to any political ideology.

Restoring Social Cohesion: Overcoming the Political Ambiguity among Citizens

The majority of the electorate in all participating countries is moderate and tends towards the political centre. Political radicals and extremists are a minority, albeit a vocal one. The data also show that more and more citizens do not identify with either side of the left-right divide, including the centre.
People with a high level of education and in good economic circumstances tend to support moderate parties and hold moderate opinions. Radical parties are supported mainly by less educated and economically disadvantaged people. The majority of the population has a medium level of education. It is precisely this electorate that the social democrats rely on.
The pandemic has exacerbated economic inequalities and contributed to a part of society feeling unsupported and vulnerable to the influence of extremist and populist forces. The pandemic has deepened the "cognitive" divide between the highly educated and the less educated groups, the latter having faced and still facing far more severe consequences due to their working conditions, their position in the labour market, their access to resources and their housing conditions.
The “raison d'etre” of social democracy is to address the problems of socially and economically disadvantaged groups by facilitating access to (higher) education, ensuring higher wages, improving employment opportunities and combating "precariousness at work".

The Sustainable Way Forward: Forging a Shield Against Conspiracy Theories

Science skepticism is widespread among supporters of far-right and smaller fringe parties. Voters of social democratic parties are least likely to doubt the quality of scientific research. People on the extreme left are also sceptical about science, especially in areas such as biotechnology.
The belief in conspiracy theories has strongly increased during the pandemic. People who follow populist parties and are in a precarious economic situation tend to believe conspiracy theories more. Overall, however, the study demonstrates that conspiracy theories and denial of the existence of a COVID-19 pandemic meet with significantly lower acceptance than assumed.
The centre-left electorate has relatively high confidence in science and in traditional political institutions and will not easily migrate to the conspiracy theory believing or populist fringe of the political spectrum.
Progressive voters in Western Europe are very pragmatic when it comes to electing parties that are most likely to be able to become the mouthpiece of their hopes. In order for social democracy to regain its footing, it needs to convince the electorate that it is indeed a candidate for government office.

The Progressive Strategy: Withstanding the Competition on the Left and the Right

Social democrats in most countries are particularly exposed to competition from green and radical left parties. Germany is an exception: here, the Christian Democrats are the main competitor.
Supporters of the social democrats are also open to more radical left and green options, while conversely radical left voters would rather not vote for a centrist party. Nevertheless, in most countries, the struggle for the centre electorate plays the more decisive role when social democrats seek government participation.
Voters who used to vote for the Social Democrats and who can be ideologically assigned to the centre are more likely to switch to another party than left-leaning Social Democrats. When social democratic parties are in government - especially as partners of the centre-right - they should not allow themselves to be drawn into austerity policies and the dismantling of the welfare state.
The study shows that social democracy is most popular among those who are not themselves dependent on financial support from the state, but who support help for the less fortunate and advocate public investment in people and infrastructure that will ensure that an economy remains modern, dynamic and sustainable.

Contact

Coordination

Dr. Ralf Hexel

030 26935-7711
Ralf.Hexel(at)fes.de

Contact Person

Adriana Hornung

030 26935-7709
Adriana.Hornung(at)fes.de

Partner

Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS)

France

In France, the data indicates many different and often polarised opinions. The French public is growing increasingly critical of their government, has a relatively low degree of institutional trust, is divided regarding their country’s membership in the EU, believes that immigrants are a benefit to society and are concerned about climate change.

Germany

In Germany, the data indicates that even though there are many different and often polarised opinions among the German electorate, the majority of German citizens are politically moderate, have relatively high confidence in their government, have a high degree of institutional trust, support their country’s membership in the EU, believe that immigrants are a benefit to society and are concerned about climate change.

Italy

In Italy, the data indicates many different, often polarised, opinions. The Italian public is largely supportive of the pandemic mitigation measures. However, Italians have a relatively low degree of institutional trust, and less than half of Italian citizens consider their country’s EU membership to be a good thing. Nevertheless, most respondents, especially younger generation cohorts, believe immigrants are a benefit to society and are concerned about climate change.

Poland

The data indicates that Poland is more polarised than other European states: the government and opposition supporters hold diametrically opposed views and values. Nevertheless, when it comes to issues such as climate change and immigration, respondents are more concerned and permissive than is often reported in the news.

Spain

The Spanish dataset points out that even though there are many different, often polarised, opinions, the majority of Spanish citizens are politically moderate, have relatively high confidence in their government, have a high degree of institutional trust, support their country’s membership in the EU, believe that immigrants are a benefit to society and are concerned about climate change.

Sweden

In Sweden, the data indicates that even though there are many different and often polarised opinions, the majority of Swedish citizens are politically moderate, have relatively high confidence in their government, have a high degree of institutional trust, believe that immigrants are a benefit to society and are concerned about climate change. Nevertheless, a substantial group of respondents is opposed to the country’s membership in the EU.