One year after the re-imposition of all US nuclear sanctions against Iran, this FES Analysis seeks to assess the strategic implications and consequences of Washington’s »maximum pressure« campaign against Tehran. Five distinguished experts discuss the longerterm ramifications of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal with regard to Iran’s domestic situation, economy and Middle East policy, as well as US policy towards Iran and European–Iranian relations.

US sanctions are taking a huge toll on Iran, especially on the general public. Nevertheless, they have failed to deprive Tehran of the capability to develop a nuclear weapon or change its regional posture and Washington’s strategic endgame remains unclear. If anything, a year after the re-imposition of sanctions, the Middle East is experiencing three interlinked crises: an economic crisis (most profoundly in Iran, but with geopolitical spillovers to other countries), a non-proliferation crisis and a deepening of the region’s geopolitical crisis.

In Iran, the US »maximum pressure« campaign has incited bellicosity in the short term, but it will also have longterm effects on Iran’s socio-political framework. Those in Tehran advocating engagement in foreign and economic affairs may have been lastingly weakened. Iran is doubling down on efforts to enhance domestic economic capabilities. Europe, meanwhile, is increasingly relegated to the side-lines in relation to the nuclear deal: the European position is taken less and less seriously in Tehran and Washington. Although Europe and Iran lack a basis on which to build a joint strategy to save the agreement, there are steps Europe could take in order to advance its interests in this context.