Turkish membership would have many advantages for the EU: cultural, geostrategic, economic. But these arguments are increasingly being put on the defensive. Newly elected French President Nicolas Sarkozy has described the commencement of membership negotiations as a mistake and announced their termination. German Chancellor Angela Merkel too favors a »privileged partnership.« The EU Commission has reproached the Turkish government with flagging reforming zeal and criticized its stance on the Cyprus question.

Positive developments in Turkey should not be overlooked, however, and an evaluation of the Turkish government’s EU policy should take more account of its restricted scope for action. An unambiguous EU line has become more difficult in the current election year because broad sections of the eu population are disenchanted. The eu position on the Cyprus conflict is regarded as unfair, and fundamental reservations concerning Turkey’s membership nurture the suspicion that the eu does not intend the negotiations seriously. Circles favorably disposed towards nationalism are very popular, and forces of inertia in the judiciary and the military are resisting the implementation of reforms that would bring Turkey closer to European standards.