| Summaries Issue 2/2005 Hansjörg Herr/Jan Priewe: Beyond the "Washington Consensus": Macroeconomic Policies for Development |
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Improving the efficiency of markets on the micro level does not necessarily trigger growth. Instead, the opportunities and preconditions for economic growth in developing countries are largely determined by macroeconomic conditions. The single most important macroeconomic factor is a stable domestic currency which is widely accepted by domestic households, banks, and firms. Stability of the currency involves low domestic inflation and a stable exchange rate. This is also a necessary precondition for a workable financial sector able to offer sufficient credit at low interest rates without a high degree of dollarization, depreciation, and inflation risk. Active macroeconomic policy includes striving for a current account surplus or a balanced current account. The lower the stock of foreign debt the easier it is for a country to achieve such a constellation. Current account surpluses and low debt in foreign currency seem to be the most efficient levers in convincing economic agents that depreciations are unlikely and that the domestic banking system is stable. The rapid economic growth in China over the last 25 years fits very well into this positive scenario of development. In contrast, the so-called “Washington Consensus” – together with its “augmented” version, which pays more attention to the central role of institutions – focuses on micro policy. Most of the recommendations concern improvements in resource allocation with the aim of increasing productivity and competition. The aim is to implement what is conceived as a truly free-market economy. The vision of both versions of the Consensus is that macroeconomic policies have to provide a stable framework which allows markets to unfold. In several areas of macro policy which are crucial for development the Consensus is therefore characterized by a lack of clarity or even neglect. This concerns (i) the problem of dollarization; (ii) the domestic financial system; (iii) the inflation target and sources of inflation; (iv) the exchange rate regime; and (v) the problem of current account deficits. Thus, development countries need to look beyond the Washington Consensus to formulate a successful strategy for development. While increasing allocation efficiency and improving the institutional framework – as recommended by international institutions – are important, only stable macroeconomic development and integration into the world economy (which make a country independent of unstable international capital movements) are capable of paving the way for deepening allocation improvements. Allocation reforms – or structural adjustments – without a stable macroeconomic constellation are doomed to fail and can even worsen economic performance. | |||||||||||||||||||
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