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Despite the hope that the shock of the Iraq invasion would force Arab leaders
to look more seriously at the numerous political, economic, and social problems
that confront their regimes, the immediate impact of the war has been to confirm
the status quo and delay necessary reform programs. Initially set back by the
apparent determination of the US administration to enact change in the region
with force if necessary, the sobering reality of the post-Iraq environment allowed
Arab governments to regain their composure and return to their old habits of governing
for the purpose of regime maintenance. US and European calls for political reform
initiatives such as the Greater Middle East Initiative sanctioned at the G8 Sea
Island Summit in June 2004 were paid lip-service and in those cases where actual
measures were introduced, they proved mostly of a cosmetic nature. By the middle
of 2004, a little more than a year after 150,000 troops invaded Iraq and overthrew
the regime of Saddam Hussein, the picture in the Middle East is one of mounting
insecurity and widespread instability rather than of the new beginning that had
been anticipated. Still, the Middle East is a region in transformation driven
by factors that are related not so much to the Iraq war as to the general global
economic and social climate of recent decades. The changes being brought about
in the region are not dramatic but they will alter the political and social landscape
in more fundamental ways than a sudden invasion and change of government like
the one in Iraq. Factors such as an extremely youthful population (in general
over 60 percent), combined with increased opportunities in education and access
to independent information sources are producing populations in the Middle East
that are more politically conscious, more economically capable, and more determined
to change their current status. If governments fail over the coming years to put
forward more comprehensive public policy programs in acknowledgement of such developments,
they risk disturbing the domestic stability of their own countries. This, in turn,
would bring about the transformation that the Middle East is looking for. |
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