Summaries — Heft 4/2004
Christian Koch: The Societal Sources of Change in the Middle East
     
  

Despite the hope that the shock of the Iraq invasion would force Arab leaders to look more seriously at the numerous political, economic, and social problems that confront their regimes, the immediate impact of the war has been to confirm the status quo and delay necessary reform programs. Initially set back by the apparent determination of the US administration to enact change in the region with force if necessary, the sobering reality of the post-Iraq environment allowed Arab governments to regain their composure and return to their old habits of governing for the purpose of regime maintenance. US and European calls for political reform initiatives such as the Greater Middle East Initiative sanctioned at the G8 Sea Island Summit in June 2004 were paid lip-service and in those cases where actual measures were introduced, they proved mostly of a cosmetic nature. By the middle of 2004, a little more than a year after 150,000 troops invaded Iraq and overthrew the regime of Saddam Hussein, the picture in the Middle East is one of mounting insecurity and widespread instability rather than of the new beginning that had been anticipated. Still, the Middle East is a region in transformation driven by factors that are related not so much to the Iraq war as to the general global economic and social climate of recent decades. The changes being brought about in the region are not dramatic but they will alter the political and social landscape in more fundamental ways than a sudden invasion and change of government like the one in Iraq. Factors such as an extremely youthful population (in general over 60 percent), combined with increased opportunities in education and access to independent information sources are producing populations in the Middle East that are more politically conscious, more economically capable, and more determined to change their current status. If governments fail over the coming years to put forward more comprehensive public policy programs in acknowledgement of such developments, they risk disturbing the domestic stability of their own countries. This, in turn, would bring about the transformation that the Middle East is looking for.

     
 
  
 
 
 
     
© Friedrich Ebert Stiftung  net edition: Gerda Axer-Dämmer | 04/2005   Top