Building new alliances, solving global problems
The global tasks that can be solved only collectively by nations are increasing in number, while the level of willingness to tackle these issues within a multilateral framework is, however, decreasing. The economic and political rise of China and India, in particular, is creating additional pressure to adapt to such 'rising powers‘ who are challenging the political arithmetic of 'transatlantic multilateralism' and the increased propensity of the 'North' towards protectionism is creating further blocs. Will there be reinvigoration of global policy or progressive erosion of the multilateral system? In fact, both scenarios are conceivable. Germany, as a highly regarded player in multilateral institutions, has built up a lot of political capital with its constructive, mediatory approach. The formation of new alliances and the establishment of new international fora are central to increasing the problem-solving capacity of the community of states – Germany should take an active role in this.
Crises and Wars in Times of Globalization
How German Crisis Prevention and Peace Building could help
Wars between nations have been replaced by new forms of violent conflict,
which cannot be kept in check using the usual procedures of international law. These 'new wars'
are leading to a privatisation of force, transnational crime and terrorism – dangers whose
likelihood increases the more national self-determination of controls are eroded, leading to a
failed state situation.
This article makes recommendations for a far-sighted German peace policy using a backdrop of plausible future scenarios. The issues such a policy should address include developing a national security strategy, revising current funding models and, not least, developing a European coordination strategy.
Farewell to disarmament?
Point of orientation in Germany's arms control policy
Hans J. Gießmann
Barely two decades after the end of the East-West conflict, no new strategic approach has been found in terms of global or European disarmament policy beyond the former military blocs and alliances. Disarmament seems to have been forgotten as a political control tool to counter instability and conflict. Are the notions of agreed disarmament and arms control now but relics of the era of large-scale wars between nations and have they now become irrelevant to the asymmetrical armed conflicts of the present? In addition to the risks and dangers that can arise from underestimating the importance of international cooperation on disarmament, this article also focuses on the options available in trying to establish a forward-looking and preventative German disarmament policy.
Prospects for the future as a security and welfare union
Christos Katsioulis & Gero Maaß
The European Union as a unique constellation of supranational and intergovernmental norms is currently facing huge challenges: The expansion to encompass 27 states has been completed, yet the institutional architecture is trailing far behind what is required. After the rejection of the EU constitution by France and the Netherlands, reform of the union has been placed on hold for the time being. On top of this, a deep gulf between the individual states and the EU is becoming apparent. This article sets out possible scenarios for the future development of the European Union against the backdrop of these challenges and identifies possible plans of action for Germany‘s European policy.
A policy field of underestimated importance
The increasing significance of large-scale health problems for the stability and security of entire regions, the spread of infectious diseases and the close correlation between poverty and disease all point to the fact that health has become a key global challenge. In addition to this, the area of global health policy with its numerous actors and crosslinks to other policy fields reflects virtually perfectly the complex nature of global governance. An innovative approach in global health governance could also provide stimuli in other policy fields. In addition to controlling disease, a top priority here must also be to focus on across-the-board improvements in health standards in poor countries.
Prevention and Suppression of Organised Crime
Future Action Perspectives from a German and a European Angle
Richard Mörbel & Sönke Schmidt
Globalisation, technological advances and increased trade have contributed greatly to internationalising organised criminal activity that cuts across cultural, legal and economic barriers. The actual extent of the threat of organised crime is, however, hard to quantify. Criminal organisations see Europe as a uniform territory for operations – there is therefore a need for a European strategy for combating this, and national policies should also be integrated into such a strategy. The EU should lead the way in this, due to its special expertise in the field of intergovernmental cooperation in security as well as in its own interests.
Controlling the Risks of a Global Economy
Michael Dauderstädt & Christian Kellermann
As the world‘s leading exporter, Germany benefits from open, global markets;
at the same time, however, this liberalisation weakens national-level controls if these are not
adopted at European Union level in the course of the integration process. The key risks for the
global economy in the next decade are primarily those of an unregulated drop in the value of the US
dollar and a global weakness in demand. Both in Europe and worldwide, there is a lack of mass
purchasing power due to wages lagging behind productivity and growth and to the propensity to save
fuelled by the risks of deregulated markets. In all, there is an impending threat of the decoupling
of productivity and output.
As a substantial voice in the EU and the global economy, Germany could be a driving force in securing better regulation of the global markets and thereby be instrumental in reducing the loss of impact of national economic policy.
Too many or too few?
Demographic growth and international migration
Population growth will remain a decisive factor in terms of international relations and the global economy in the coming years. The global population is set to grow by 17% by 2020, with by far the largest proportion of this growth taking place in the 'third' world. In addition to urbanisation, levels of international migration will continue to rise. By 2050, some 100 million people will migrate from the 'third' to the 'first' world. After the US, Germany will be the second-largest recipient country in terms of net legal immigration, primarily from Eastern Europe and Turkey. Countries with a low birth rate will have to be aggressive in wooing qualified immigrants in order to close the skills gaps in the labour markets. Whether the EU succeeds in creating a common policy of controlled immigration – and in then also integrating the immigrants – is decisive for the future.
On a new mission
The foreign missions of the Bundeswehr and German security policy
What was unthinkable for Germany up to the beginning of the 1990s is now a 'normal' part of everyday foreign policy reality: soldiers from the German Armed Forces have been sent at times of crisis and conflict beyond NATO borders, to the Balkans, to Afghanistan, to the Near East and to Africa. At the same time, the understanding of security has changed in Europe. With the concept of a comprehensive security policy including a broad spectrum of civilian instruments in addition to the military and with this concept being applied multilaterally and preventatively, Germany is trying to do justice to these new challenges. This includes further development of its security policy instruments just as it does any threats posed by weapons of mass destruction and the possible erosion of the domestic policy foundations of German security policy.
Human Rights and International Social Policy
Constraining the Anarchy of Power
In the course of globalisation, disparities in social welfare have continued to
grow in recent years both within individual nations and between different regions of the world,
while global competition for jobs has also become more acute. Against this backdrop, human rights
and social welfare standards are coming under ever more pressure and the fight for social welfare
rights is shifting to international level. In the next ten years, over a billion young people will
join the ranks of the working-age population – the majority of these in the developing countries,
the very regions least able to cope economically, socially or politically with this increase.
In addition to strengthening the existing system of human rights and international social welfare policy, an area of particular importance in the coming years will be that of achieving improved coordination between not only the international organisations but also the policies in the member states themselves. Other areas of particular importance will be those of integrating the core labour standards into the trade agreements and drafting and enforcing human rights standards for economic operations.
Democracy en Ascendant?
Opportunities and limitations of strategies to promote democracy
During this time at the beginning of the 21st century, the world is freer and more democratic than ever before. Nevertheless, this tendency towards the emergence of a democratic world is full of contradictions. Most nations that have introduced reforms in the last 30 years are still far from achieving the status of a consolidated democracy, while flawed democracies and semi-authoritarian regimes are exhibiting extremely unfavourable conditions for any successful transformation. At the same time, the balance of power is shifting in favour of the old democracies and authoritarian regimes are using the room to manoeuvre afforded by this to block, both legally and diplomatically, international endeavours to achieve democracy. The requirements for succeeding at promoting democracy have become even more difficult to meet – Germany, however, should remain resolute in this in its own interests in the long term in bringing about a democratically governed world.
New Shortages, the Revival of Resource Nationalism and the Outlook
for Multilateral Approaches
The price hikes of recent years made it clear that a scarcity of oil and gas and resulting supply bottlenecks and interruptions in delivery are becoming easier to envisage. A race for access to energy resources began that could easily escalate into a new Cold War for energy or into a Hot Resource War, since most countries in the world are reliant on imported energy. The governments can choose between a resource nationalism strategy with a bilateral energy procurement and the application of pressure on the one hand, and a multilateral approach aimed at making the international energy system equally advantageous for all involved on the other hand. This article discusses the challenges of a sustainable German energy security policy and presents options for action in this difficult political field between conflict regions, state-controlled power companies and growing competition between the consumer countries.
Religion and politics
A revived area of conflict
The religions have made their way back into politics. In addition to individual worship within the context of respected constitutional democracy, there is a revival in all cultural groups of fundamentalist claims to power within politicised religion, which is in some places taking hold of state power. A policy of recognition looks promising for keeping in check the temptations represented by fundamentalism. This policy combines the open acknowledgement of the equal value of every religious identity with commitment to fair access for all to the social and economic resources of global society.
The European Union and the Post-Communist Sphere
Integration, European Neighbourhood-Policy and Strategic Partnership
With the eastward expansion of the EU, the former Eastern Bloc, once perceived as a homogeneous whole, has been divided into two parts: the central European member states and the non-member states in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. While further transformation and integration is expected for the new member states, the EU's relationship with the non-members is coloured by uncertainty about the further development of these societies and the effects of this on the EU. The future of the EU's relations with the Eastern nations will depend on whether and to what extent the 'virtuous circle' being aimed at in Central Europe can be maintained and on whether the successful transformation process has a positive impact radiating out to the other countries. The EU should ensure that it does not allow its most effective political weapon, the offer of membership, to be snatched out of its hands and should direct step-by-step integration policies and neighbourhood policies towards this area.
Together the West is Exploring New Shores
In the transatlantic relations, mutual distrust is growing. The Iraq war has deepened the rift between the U.S. and Europe but the cracks in the West have already been apparent for some time. Less and less the governments on both sides of the Atlantic were able to develop common positions with regard to important international political issues. While the transatlantic economy - the most stable and strongest interconnected area of cooperation - was hardly affected by the controversy, it becomes apparent where the conflicts in the security partnership are concerned that the transatlantic relations need a new basis. A reversion to the familiar roles seems not to be possible; but without a constructive cooperation with the U.S. most of the foreign policy aims of Germany can only be fulfilled with difficulties or not at all. Through pragmatic and goal-oriented projects, e.g. in the range of climate politics, energy security or world trade, the groundwork of political relations could be re-established.
International climate policy 2020
A challenge for German (environmental) foreign policy
Hermann E. Ott
Climate change is rapidly becoming a key issue of German foreign policy and international co-operation. The very long-term effects involved and their often unjust distribution across the world make climate change a real challenge for the whole human race. The resulting challenges are of an intellectual, conceptual and organizational nature, since the whole problem of climate has a highly complex structure. The effects of human activity only make themselves felt after a lapse of decades or even centuries. In addition, these effects are often not felt by those who cause them. Furthermore, the causes of climate change are numbered in millions and spread all over the globe. The article develops three possible scenarios for the consequences of the current and prospective climate policy. Taking these scenarios into account, it offers recommendations for a credible national climate policy of Germany.
Terrorism in the 21st century
The rule of law as a guideline for german policy
Peter R. Neumann
Since 2001, global terrorism has become one of the biggest domestic and international challenges for Germany. In the present paper, Peter R. Neumann outlines key influences that have marked the transformation of terrorism over the last three decades. The paper highlights the threat from Salafi jihadist terrorism, and how it has evolved since the September 11 attacks in 2001 and the subsequent ‘War on Terror’. The paper shows how German policymakers have responded to these challenges. Internationally, Germany has been keen to emphasise a more multilateralist approach, opposing the Iraq war and stressing the need to address the root causes of terrorism rather than merely its violent manifestations. Berlin participates actively in all international forums and plays a positive role in pushing for a more integrated framework based on fighting terrorism through the rule of law.