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New Labour in Power Again - What Next?
David Miliband*
It is an irony of modern politics that Britain’s Labour
Party, for the 20th century one of the leastsuccessful social
democratic parties in Western Europe, should at the beginning of the 21st
century, suddenly look like one of the most successful. As social
democratic governments have fallen in Italy and Denmark, and face tough
re-election fights in France and Germany, Labour seems to be defying the
laws of political gravity.
However, whenever anyone says they have found the key
to the door of permanent power, they usually end up losing the next election.
Things are never as good or as bad as they seem, so this is not
a time for triumphalism. What is more, in a myriad of ways Britain remains
a country less productive and less fair than I would like, and until those
problems are addressed at their roots speakers from the UK need to tread
with care.
My purpose in this lecture is to explain the dynamics
of New Labour’s current political dominance in Britain; examine its record
in government - locate its strengths, weaknesses and challenges ahead;
set out in tentative form what might be some of the next steps for the
party come the end of this Parliament and the beginning of the next; and
then leave you to draw some conclusions about the implications for other
parties of the left in Europe.
New Labour’s Task
In 1992, election analysts queried whether the election
defeat represented ‘Labour’s Last Chance’. Changing class formation, the gender gap, the
electoral system, all seemed to point to permanent Conservative hegemony.
Yet ten years on, people are saying the same things about Labour
dominance, and asking whether the Conservatives are in terminal decline.
Certainly the electoral record is remarkable: the two biggest
consecutive electoral landslides this century eclipse the performance
of Thatcher, Attlee and Baldwin. Perhaps
the only, tenuous, parallel is with Conservative dominance after the
age of Gladstone.
The argument put by Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and others
after John Smith died in 1994 was in essence quite simple.
They believed that economic and social change meant that Labour
could not be elected and Britain’s problems could not be tackled by
the tried and trusted methods of post-war social democracy – the happy
synthesis that was the Keynesian welfare state. Five strategic ambitions led the process. Each had a political dimension, but each also
addressed a substantive issue in the Britain of the 1990s:
-
Labour needed to stand for steadfast
social democratic values but offer innovative means to achieve their
delivery. This meant, above
all, reconsideration of the role of the state in modern social democratic
politics.
-
Labour needed to combine ideas
for wealth creation, the ‘politics of production’, with commitment
to fair outcomes, the ‘politics of distribution’.
- Labour needed to invade territory claimed by the
right – for example on law and order and defence – and redefine it for
progressive ends.
- Labour needed to engage with dynamic and emerging
currents in British thought and society, from communitarianism to the
reform of the state to environmentalism.
Beneath the contingencies of fortune
and circumstance that have helped achieve its record results, Labour has
succeeded over the last five years where it has knitted together these
ambitions into a coherent narrative.
Where it has struggled, it is because it has failed to resolve
one or more of these conundrums. At
each stage the Opposition, as it then was, and now the Government, has
tried to redefine the policy choices facing Britain as well as the political
choices facing the voters.
The Record: Achievements and Challenges Ahead
Leading politicians emphasised before
1997 that change would be incremental, designed to build confidence in
Labour as a party of government, and confidence in government as a means
of resolving collective problems. After
five years, one can draw up a balance sheet that explains in significant
part why the electorate decided last year that the Government should be
allowed to carry on with its work:
-
On the economy, Britain has achieved
steady growth against an uncertain, not to say inclement, international
picture. Employment is up
by about a million – and in the highest unemployment constituencies
like South Shields, unemployment is down by nearly a third, and youth
unemployment, a focus for the Government’s New Deal programme, is
down by over 60%. Low interest rates and safe economic management are the vital underpinning
of Labour’s political support.
-
On social policy, the Government
has delivered significant increases in the incomes of families with
children, poor pensioners and employees on low wages, and started
a serious long term fight against social exclusion.
For the first time in a western economy, the tax and benefit
system has been integrated for children, pensioners and low wage workers.
The argument that welfare rights must be matched by responsibilities
has taken the heat out of Conservative attempts to stigmatise welfare
recipients, and allowed for increased generosity to people in need.
-
With public finances in a healthy
situation following corrective action on tax and spending early in
the last Parliament, the Government is now able to boast fast-rising
spending on health and education provision, with public sector pay
rising faster than public sector pay for the first time in a generation.
Critically this is being combined with reform programmes to
ensure that the productivity of public services is increased, with
better use of capital, better skill-mixing in working teams, better
accountability measures, and more devolution of responsibility to
the front line.
- On crime – a major issue for Labour voters – the
official figures show a 22% fall according to the most reliable surveys.
However, street crime like the stealing of mobile phones is on
the rise, and this has led to increased fears of crime.
In my own constituency, it is low-level vandalism as much as
serious crime that contributes to a feeling of disorder – especially
for older people.
- In relation to political reform, Labour has made
important changes, but not satisfied those who believe institutional
sclerosis underpins structural problems with British economy and society.
In relation to local government, as I explain below, there remain
fundamental questions to be answered.
- In international policy the government has fashioned
a coherent philosophy of international engagement, starting with Europe
but going wider. We believe
interdependence is the defining feature of international relations today,
and the necessary response is an international response to problems
that cannot be solved by one nation state acting alone.
Far from everything has gone right,
and a lot still needs to be done. But
the 1997 manifesto promised ‘a start not a revolution’. And because of this approach there has always been a debate inside
the Labour Party, and on the left in Britain, about whether the relative
caution of Tony Blair’s first promises represented the first stages of
a long term commitment to build trust in progressive goals and means,
with a wider horizon of more radical change to follow, or whether in fact
the party’s very purposes had been violated.
The Government has always argued that on the sound foundations
of economic competence, mild redistribution, constitutional reform, further
reform could be built. Since the
election the Government has been ready to push for a new consensus on
tax and spending, on aspects of social policy, even on Europe.
This is significant because the hardest
test for any political party is not whether it solves policy problems,
but whether it succeeds in shifting the political centre of gravity in
its direction. Put another way, success in the tug-of-war
that is politics comes from dragging your opponents onto your territory. In this sense the centre-ground is not given;
it is contested and constructed by politics itself; and only by redefining
the centre ground can a progressive party build the cultural change necessary
for a sustained and successful period in power.
By this test, there are some grounds
for optimism. Most notably, the
debate on tax and spending that undermined the last Labour government
in the 1970s has been reconstructed.
On the basis of proven economic competence and evidence of reform
in service delivery, there is scope to make the case that in the end what
you get is what you pay for. In 1997 and 2001 the Government promised to
raise the share of national income dedicated to education. Now the Government has started a national debate
about the advisability of further raising taxes to raise health spending,
in the context of what is already the fastest-rising investment in education
and health in Europe. I believe
there is sufficient confidence in the government, and sufficient recognition
of the need for further resources to meet needs and expectations, to proceed
with this move.
Meanwhile other aspects of Labour’s
agenda are becoming an accepted part of the political landscape. Devolution, the Human Rights Act, Freedom of
Information are becoming an accepted part of the political scene. Even
in relation to the charged issues of race and nationality, the Conservative
Party is keen to distance itself from the xenophobia that marked its last
election campaign.
More significant, perhaps, in the light
of current media frenzy in the UK, on the big issues that make a difference
to people’s lives the Government is building on its first term achievements
with further reform. In health,
education, crime, industry and the economy, even benighted transport policy,
new ideas are coming forward to extend first term reforms.
However, there remain weaknesses, and
serious challenges ahead. The
key lesson from Britain and abroad is that it is never too early to start
planning for these issues.
The Forward Agenda: Weaknesses and Challenges
The Government has worked hard over
the last four years to develop a compelling narrative that adequately
defines the values and ambitions of modern social democracy. Post-war revisionism in Britain, as in Germany, emphasised the ethical
value of equality in contradistinction to the instrumental value of public
ownership. The new Clause IV adopted
in 1995 speaks of placing ‘power, wealth and opportunity in the hands
of the many not the few’. But
a commitment to equality on its own provides an insufficient description
of a Government committed to environmental sustainability, safe communities,
and greater individual liberty.
Hence the debate about the Third Way
of the British left. But the Third
Way has thus far been defined negatively rather than positively – not
the new Right of the Conservatives and not traditional social democracy. Ironically, the same weakness is attached to
Lionel Jospin. A recent biography
is entitled Monsieur Ni-Ni, in reference to his slogan ni nationalisation
ni privatisation (neither nationalisation nor privatisation).
The book argues that he too has suffered from lack of clear and
positive political definition.
When Ministers are busy in their departments,
the attention to the central story of politics can be lost. The story to be told is essentially a simple
one – about the development of civic and social institutions that provide
opportunity and security to all, and not just a few, in a world of change. The Government needs to find compelling ways
to tell it.
Second, Governments are often defined
by their institutional legacies. In
Britain, the NHS and the Open University are great Labour achievements. The current Labour government can claim enormous
advance in the creation of a Scottish Parliament and a Welsh Assembly.
In health, it has created the world’s first 24-hour, nurse-led, internet
and phone-based health line – NHS Direct.
There is a new University for Industry – learndirect – offering
internet-based tuition for adult learners. In welfare the Working Families
Tax credit has a group of some 2.5 million people who are genuine stakeholders
in its continued existence. But
these initiatives do not yet command popular allegiance of the most successful
institutional innovations. In
a political world where votes are less governed by class and tradition,
and voting itself is increasingly a lifestyle choice, the Government needs
to ground its policies in accessible and effective institutional form.
Third, contrary to the rabid press
hunt for ‘cronies’ and placemen, the Government has not turned New Labour
into an all-pervasive political movement.
There are many who consider the Government to be better than the
alternatives – trade unions. sections of business, parts of the voluntary
sector, local government. But
that is not the same as a cohesive social movement that the most successful,
genuinely hegemonic social democratic parties have achieved.
A coalition for change, supported in civil society, academia and
the media, is a prerequisite for long term political dominance, and this
is some way off.
Changes within the party, rather than
the government, may hold the key. Labour’s
machine that was built to climb the mountain into government needs to
be re-engineered for government. In
my view that means turning local branches into the champions of local
reform and renewal, working in an increasingly pluralistic local climate
with other local institutions. In
other words we need to build a local machine capable of winning campaigns
– whether for more accessible health care, economic reconstruction, new
priorities in education – as well as winning elections.
In this way, the Government may be
able to combine the discipline necessary for politics at any level with
the flexibility and dialogue that is increasingly demanded by citizens,
not to mention the media. Thoughtful
people in the media recognize that this is a challenge for them as well
as politicians, as tentative evidence emerges that people are too smart
to take media sensationalism at face value.
Newspapers as well as politicians can get out of touch.
Let me turn to the challenges ahead,
because in truth Labour will only maintain its position on the high ground
if it anticipates changes in the economy and society, rather than waits
to react to them.
All socialist and social democratic
parties have equality somewhere close to their core.
In Britain there has been a debate about the balance of equal of
opportunity and equality of result – despite the fact that the two are
intimately related. But equality
– and inequalities – are vital to today’s politics.
Despite nearly five years of Labour government Britain remains
a country scarred by divisions of class – and those divisions stretch
between generations not just within them.
So relative social mobility – the chance of a son or daughter of
a plumber becoming a doctor, relative to the chance of the son or daughter
of a doctor being an accountant – has remained unchanged in 100 years.
Last year, only 800 students across the whole of Britain from the
bottom two social classes went to university.
In South Tyneside, my Borough, only 17% of 18 year olds went to
university.
Labour’s challenge is to make itself
the party not just that tackles existing inequalities but also the party
of social mobility. This is one
reason for the continuing importance of education to Labour’s purpose
and appeal. Tony Blair famously said in 1996 his top three
priorities for government were education, education and education. In two election manifestoes, education has
been the number one priority. It
needs to stay that way, as a motor of social and economic advance, and
a key issue for electoral mobilisation.
In the future, in education, tax and
benefits and social policy we have to provide more ladders for people
to develop their potential. One
small example of how we have to rethink our approach came to me when I
visited a welfare to work project in my constituency – to promote mobility
you need to help people build careers and not just get jobs, and that
means extending the reach of the labour market service into work and not
just into the ranks of the unemployed.
Second, Britain remains stubbornly
under-productive. The full effects
of a settled and successful macroeconomic regime have not yet been felt,
but productivity data suggest a serious gap with France and Germany, never
mind the US. Our economy is regionally
unbalanced, and sectorally unbalanced, and this must be a major concern
for the future. Labour’s challenge
is help each region of the country develop an industrial strategy based
on its needs and potential, and to develop its sectoral strengths so that
we maintain and enhance our world-beating industries, from pharmaceuticals
to the media. I believe that it is increasingly difficult
to talk about the competitive advantage of nations; industrial policy
must now be governed at a regional level.
Third, Britain remains bedevilled by
centralisation and weak local government, despite the success of devolution. This
is a particular problem in England. The Borough which I represent is twinned with Wupperthal, which probably
has a population twice the size, amuonting to some 300,000 people; and
a comparison of the respective powers and Budgets is instructive. It is not just that one has an elected mayor
and the other doesn’t. The German
system has created real dynamos of economic and social development at
local level. South Tyneside has
a proud tradition of delivering services, but it is now challenged to
provide the community leadership that has become part of the German scene.
Finally, any party of the left must
be alive to the politics of insecurity. This is not just a question of
employment insecurity – an issue highlighted by Robert Reich in the early
years of the Clinton administration.
In Britain we have a divide between work-rich areas and work-poor. But insecurity is about more than economics. Insecurity brackets together issues of crime,
public services, finance, identity and foreign policy. If you fear to go out, you are insecure.
If you fear that the local hospital is not good, you are insecure
about getting ill. If you
are worried about the governance of your funded pension, you are insecure.
If you are worried about immigration, you are insecure.
And if you think anti-terrorism measures are not working you are
insecure. This is a powerful cocktail, exploited by the
Right in Italy and Austria, and one which the Left must define and address
on its own terms.
It is important to be honest about
these challenges ahead. It has
always been a hallmark of revisionism back to Eduard Bernstein that revisionism
never stops. There are always
new frontiers to be conquered.
Next Steps
How will New Labour respond? Its challenge
is fundamental - to maintain and renew its political definition. It would
be easy to say that the wining formula developed from the ruins of the
1980s serves us well, and should continue.
‘Triangulation’ served the left well.
It helped all our parties can credibility and definition, and brought
into sharp focus the new offer we were making to voters. But New Labour needs to define itself positively
not negatively, for what it is for not for what it is against.
That is a much harder task while the
shape of modern Conservatism is so confused.
But incumbent governments must continue to provide their own definition
of themselves, or their opponents, and events, will do it for them. In the UK, a dualistic structure is the result
of our electoral system. In the
rest of Europe, where more proportional voting systems make for a more
multifaceted political picture, the dynamics will be different. But the challenge for parties of the centre-left.
I would put the following three ideas on the table as we approach
our common challenges.
First, we need to remember that it
is themes not policies that win elections – as Al Gore discovered to his
cost. Themes without policies
lack substance, but policies on their own are arid.
Who we care about and how we connect with them are the two key
questions for political strategy.
We need to ensure that our values drive
our politics and our policies, so that we remain a government rather than
an administration – the difference between electing politicians and letting
civil servants run the country. Values
are the fertile soil on which politics is based.
On the basis of clear values, we need to establish clear goals. These are the tall tree trunks that mark the
landscape. Only then can policies
find their place – these are the branches, invisible from a distance or
at a glance, but fine grained up close.
Let me give an example. Our values say the right to work is a foundation
of social and economic inclusion. An
associated goal is that anyone who works full-time should be able to support
their family. Only on this basis
does the goal of integrating the tax and benefit system to reward work
become clear and comprehensible.
Labour needs to clarify these links
so in the midst of the blood and thunder of political campaigning it retains
this sense of mission and purpose. Without
wishing to interfere in your election, you might find this a useful guide
over the next seven months: values and themes matter as much as policies.
Second, Labour needs to stay in tune
with changing Britain. So we need
to prepare for a new political landscape, with a new received memory as
its backcloth, and fast social change to the fore.
It is up to us to tap into the new emerging currents of British
life, and gain strength from them.
There are risks in this strategy. It is important not to be caught up by fads,
or to lose sight of the fact that older people, more set in their political
ways, are far more likely to vote than their younger counterparts. But the dynamic currents of society are vital
to a progressive party.
In my country I believe these vital
currents are mobilized around issues that combine values with ideals –
most notably the environment, where the government has substantive achievements
to its credit but has not found a way to shout about them, and where the
next phase of reform involves difficult decisions, as well as the ‘win-win’
solutions of energy efficiency. Similarly
on the fight against global poverty, where Britain’s contribution to the
international coalition is better recognized. But there are also more prosaic trends that
may become important:
-
older people constitute a growing
part of our society, and are often referred to as a problem, for example
in relation to pensions; but in fact the growing group of ‘active
retired’ are a resource for our community; many would in fact like
to work; I believe they will become increasingly politically active,
and we should be supporting them
-
local identity and localism are
increasingly important in a world where people feel disempowered by
international forces; that is one reason I argue for the regeneration
of local government in the UK, but the agenda goes wider, to include
issues of ownership and control of local public services, and community
involvement in local economic and social renewal
-
as we have increased employment
to record levels in the UK, so the debate about the quality of work,
and the management of time have begun to be raised; this agenda has
not yet broken through to public consciousness but I believe it will
do so; our answer is unlikely to be a rigid 35 hour week, especially
given our tradition of part-time work, but the time-squeeze is something
affecting more and more families.
Third, in providing a coherent narrative
for citizens that speaks to their lives and priorities, national governments
must weave in international as well as domestic priorities. In the UK, the government is marked by twin
commitments to investment and reform to modernize public services, and
secondly to play a leading role in the construction of the EU to help
tackle problems that cross national borders.
The Prime Minister has said that the international is now domestic
– that is a consequence of globalisation.
It has profound implications for social democratic politics.
In the halcyon days of the post-war
welfare state, the foundations of social democratic power were the national
state, a relatively homogenous working class base and a benign international
framework. Each of those foundations
has now been shattered. In the
last ten years we have started to rebuild the state’s capacity to act
as an enabler and not just a provider, steering political change. We have come to terms with the changing composition of our class
base. But the international situation,
and the demand for international political leadership, is a new dimension.
I do not believe we are at the point
of creating a country called Europe or a state called the EU. But we are broadening and deepening the unique
hybrid that is the EU – part intergovernmental, part supra-national.
We need to regulate its activities, so that it genuinely adds value;
but we cannot pretend it is not there, or can be pushed away.
Too many aspects of our future depend on what we do together, as
the EU is challenged to move beyond congratulating itself for preventing
war, to help build prosperous peace.
Social democrats need to find a way to make a distinctive contribution
to the debate about the future of Europe to strengthen their agendas for
reform at home.
Conclusion
It is always dangerous to try to read
across recipes for political success from one country to another. You will be in a better position than I to
draw out the political lessons for Germany from the New Labour experience
in Britain.
From my perspective, the greatest lesson
I have learnt over the last eight years is about the dynamic of politics.
When I joined the Labour team in Opposition in 1994, we were insurgents.
Today, incumbents have to retain the spirit of insurgency, always revising
and moving forward to maintain the political momentum. There are simply
no prizes for standing still because politics abhors a vacuum, and in
the world of permanent, multi-outlet media, that is more true than ever.
The charge come election day is always that reform has been insufficient,
never that it has been too sweeping or too radical. And if we do not fill
the vacuum, the opposition will.
So perhaps the surprising conclusion,
given the plaudits four years ago for the organisation and media professionalism
of New Labour, is that ideas are more important than ever. Notwithstanding the difficulties of modern
politics, the simplistic nature of the modern media, the sound bites and
the fragmented national conversation, ideas matter, because without them
the campaigns get pulled apart.
I
cannot promise success, because events can conspire against ideas, but
without ideas there is no hope.
Speech
by David Miliband, MP for South Shields
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung,
Berlin, 21st February 2002
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